UFC 96 rundown
Not all fight cards are created equal. Many will see how this card is lackin top stars and possibly look the other way with only one real marquee matchup headlining the event its not the thickest UFC card to date. But leads into 4 straight cards that are looking extremely intriguing. I am adding with my blog odds and photos to try to spice it up, Let me know what you think.
JACKSON(-215) vs JARDINE (+335)
A fight that is a Title eliminator for Jackson is basically a lose lose for the guy. he has no ill will toward Jardine who seems like a nice guy and always seems to have a good gameplan. If you are interested in risking money Jardine is a decent bet. If he is counted out of a fight he seems to usually come through. His big downfall comes against aggressive strikers ans especially aggressive strikers with power. Rampage is both of those things. Jardine will hav e agreat gameplan and will bring the fire. But Rampage has a great chin and has gotten into brawls with great strikers ans walked out unscathed. Rampage is the guy you want to pick in a parlay. I say he wins this 90% of the time by KO in the first stanza.
MUNOZ(+140) vs HAMILL (-180)
If you have never seen Munoz fight he is another Arizona combat prospect with a great wrestling pedigree. Though not as physically large as fellow wrestler Ryan Bader he is just as dangerous at taking the fight to the mat. There is no downside for Munoz in this fight. Many feel he is fighting a weight class above where he will eventually end up but being that he’s never been in trouble in his short career it makes sense to keep fighting where he is. Against Hamill we will find out whether Munoz is a top prospect or just another good wrestler that should test the waters at 185. This fight is just as even as the line suggests. Both guys hve about equal in ring experience with Hamill having fought better fighters. Munoz though might be a better wrestler than Hamill. If Munoz can strike effectively enough to throw hamill off he might be able to put hamill on his back for the first time in his MMA career. If that happens i see Munoz getting the sub. I pick Munoz by GNP in the 3rd.
CARWIN (+140) vs GONZAGA (-170)
This fight might be more lopsided than the line suggests. Gonzaga is remembered as the guy that folded against Couture when he had a broken nose and the guy that seemingly wilted against Werdum. If you preasure him he breaks is the mentality and I’m sure that is Carwin’s master plan. But what people fail to grasp is Carwin is not notably better than Gonzaga anywhere. Basic mma should suggest that where will Carwin preasure Gonzaga. Hendricks couldn’t get Gonzaga to the mat and suffered a brutal KO. If Carwin can’t that will be his fate. Carwin is the larger stronger fighter of the 2 and his goal might be to drag Gonzaga into deep water testing his cardio But i don’t believe the human chin can survive what Gonzaga is throwing right now long enough to stand with him that long. Carwin could win the fight if he believe his BJJ is strong enough to go to the mat with Gonzaga. I am not confident in that so i say Gonzaga by arm bar in the 2nd round when Carwin is dazed from a big punch.
BROWN (+135) vs SELL (-105)
this is a tough one to pick because I have a limited knowledge of the Immortal outside of his fights on TUF. On TUF he looked like a good striker with limited skills else where. On paper it should be even, But it seems like Sell has been reborn at 170 and is extremely large and powerful. I would love to see him use his BJJ black belt and win this fight in impressive fashion by sub in the 2nd round. But more likely is a hard fought exciting decision win for Sell.
MAYNARD (-170) vs MILLER (+140)
The Bully has become more than a beast at 155 and seems like a logical title shot candidate in the future. But in his way is something most have only heardof in whispers. A lightweight, small, great power, legit wrestling, amazing bjj. In 08 he disposed of 3 good fighters most notably Euro stand out David Baron. Miller has more than Ground and pound he has 9 wins by submission. And Maynard has not proven yet that he can stay on the mat with a fighter like Miller. Clementi was legit test but Clementi’s guard has been broken before. Miller could be the future. And the winner in my mind needs to be on a short title shot list. this fight is even closer than the Odds have it. I have Miller by leg lock of some type in a shocker.
MADIGAN (+250) vs MCCRORY (-325)
Madigan is giving up a ton in size, reach, and experience. You can’t measure a fighters heart when they are up against a wall but it will be more than a difficult challenge for the UFC newcomer and the crowd behind him. Mccrory may have looked alittle un skilled on the ground in his battle against Hazlett but that should not be indicative of what McCrory brings into the ring. He is a huge specimin, with a solidly well rounded game. Against Madigan he will need to win standing or submit the new comer. And that’s what I see happening. Mcrory by decision.
GROVE (-200) vs DAY (+160)
Both fighters have been prone to inconsistancies. Day’s lost to Bisping may say more about Bisping than about Day but Grove’s loss to Jorge Rivera raises huge questions about Grove’s chin and ability to win fights he needs to win. Against Tanner, Grove put on a great performance and still could have lost a decision to a fighter that many believed was way over the hill. So what does Grove really have? We should see here. Day has only lost recently to fighters that are at the top of the UFC heap. He should be another strong Canadian at 185 as Day win’s by Gnp TKO in the 2nd round.
BOETSCH (-140)vs BRILZ (+110)
The barbarian has looked impressive in all of his UFC performances including his loss to hamill in which most people believe he was unprepared for the altitude. The next step out of obscurity for Boetsch comes in putting together a winning streak. If he can overpower the smaller Brilz we will see that i have Boetsch buy decision.
PATT (+350)vs (-550) VERA
This is one of those high risk high reward bets. No one that vera has fought has he looked like a can But against fighters that make it tough on his he seems quick to lose his gameplan and start backing up. Add to that the chance that Patt may be better at something than Vera namely BJJ. Patt will be undeniably the smaller man, maybe the weaker man. But if Patt can put Vera on his back this fight could have upset written all over it. I believe Vera will pull it out though with a Tko over the smaller fighter in a must win for Vera.
NELSON (+175) vs RILEY (-215)
Riley will be playing the role of grizzled veteran as he attempts to defeat the new comer from TUF. Riley has lost at liek 4 different weight classes but almost all are from Decision. hes a tough fighter that seems like he only loses to respectable names. Nelson has shown good hands and bad wrestling technique in his fights in the UFC. but unlike fellow team Penn members he seems to actually train BJJ. That will come in handy as Riley might want to test his ground game if the fight doesn’t go his way early. If Nelson trains hard and doesn’t fade late i ahve nelson by UD but Riley could easily get the win.
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