UFC 92 Ultimate Rundown

One of the biggest cards since last years ultra stacked December card comes to us from Vegas. Mir vs Noguiera a fight that most have already counted out the underdog.  Forrest vs Rashad a fight that will decide the future of the UFC Light heavy weight division and Wanderlei Silva vs Rampage Jackson 3. The rematch of 2 epic fights that both went the way of Wanderlei but could have gone either way. Mega cards are fun to break down so here we go.

MIR vs NOGUEIRA
This fight many see as 2 figthers of the same style. Both being ground specialists. Then the unknowledgable fan will just skip to their records and Imediately presume that Mir has absolutely no chance in hell. I disagree. Mir may be the more technical proficient groundfighter of the two. also Noguiera may have defeated other good ground fighters such as Ricco Rodriquez, Josh Barnett and Fabricio Werdum. The reality of how he did that though shows why Mir may be able to win. In the Ricco fight Nog barely squeaked out a decision that Under UFC rules Noguiera would have lost. Against Barnett in the first Fight Nog was also almost subbed many times and lost the first fight because he was not able to convincingly dominate the standup and was beaten on the ground. And against Werdum Noguiera was able to keep the fight standing against the incredibly substandard wrestler. In a striking or kick boxing affair Nog would likely win. Mir has a tendancey to fall or flop when hit hard. many believe this is a strategy to get the fight to the ground. In almost all of his losses he simply seemed to quit. other than the Ian Freeman loss where Freeman dragged Mir into deep water and Mir gassed the other 2 losses were immediately following his motorcycle ccident and he seemed to be lacking any training. But Nogueira may be less of a wrestler than Mir, either way Mir undoubtedly believes he is the superior groundf igther and will try to take the fight one way or another to where he will be most successful. If Mir gets top position a postion that Noguiera is at his best, Mir will have a good chance of either gaining the sub or riding out  a UD. the real question is can Mir continue to fight at a high level when we know that Noguiera can into atleast the 3rd round. That is the real question. I will go out ona  limb and pick the underdog Frank Mir by Choke in the 2nd round.

EVANS vs GRIFFEN
In a fight between 2 once completely unheralded TUF winners the title is on the line. Forrest has proved in his last 2 consecutive fights that he can stadn in the fire. against 2 back to back number 1 ranked light heavyweights Forrest stood in the pocket and won. Against Rashad he fights a fighter that has knocked out the biggest name in the sport but has also had a propensity not to engage and seem tentative. These are the fighters Forrest loves. Forrest is the bigger fighter, he showed a great sprawl against Tito and that will be in his game plan. My guess is Forrest will keep the fight on the feet and terrorize Rashad with jabs and leg kicks at range until Rashad tried to get into range where Forrest will clinch and go for Knees and dirty boxing. once on the ground Forrest will work for subs and eventually get back up similar to the way Bisping the much smaller fighter did. I will say Forrest by either sub or UD.

SILVA vs JACKSON
Jackson is a much better fighter now than he was the last 2 times he was beaten by Wand. The question in most mens minds will be whether or not Rampage’s current legal trouble has affected his focus and whether or not Wand is in his head. Wand is also training ina  much more well rounded camp than the first 2 times they fought and sees the potential for a title fight on the horizon. I believe that Wand simply has Jackson’s number. Quentin might be the better boxer but his chin isn’t as solid nor is he as fast as Wanderlei. I see Wand by KO rd 2

DOLLOWAY vs MASSENZIO
i think we all know what the UFC thinks will happen in this matchup. Dolloway is the superior athlete and collegiate wrestler. Massenzio and Dolloway actually met in college with Dolloway coming out on top. Of course Massenzio right now is the more decorated submisssion artist witha  few more high profile submissions. But Dollaway being the superior wrestler and athlete is also well versed in submissions including a training submission over TUF coach Rampage Jackson. Not to mention CB’s well know power in his hands. I will say high profile KO in the first for CB.

AL-TURK vs KONGO
This to me looks pretty cut and dry on paper. Al-turk is the newcomer with no octagona dn very little big fight experience though he did very well in england. He is also a ground fighter. this is the fight to seeif Kongo is ready to fight Gonzaga or another more well rounded top fighter. Kongo has been hollering for a title shot and has beent rying to show off his wrestling to the shagrin of most MMA fans who found the ground technique he showed against Evensan extremely useless and boring. Agaisnt Turk Kongo will be the much longer fighter. though i will not rule out am Al-turk submission or UD i will say Kongo wins the UD in similar fashion to his Assuerio Silva win, where he limits the damage he takes while on the ground and dominates the stand up.

LISTER vs OKAMI
After seeing Cote’s performance against Silva in his stread Okami has to think he may have a chance if he is able to get into that fight. The problem right now is the tentavily Lietes has been scheduled to fight Silva. almost goading Okami into an impressive performace against ground wizard Dean Lister. Okami needs to use the same strategy he used against Evan Tanner and come out quickly and aggressive and try to demolish Lister quickly with Knees. Okami is the better, bigger stronger wrestler and should be able to keep the fight on his feet. If he doesn’t and he comes out in his usual slow start mode, Okami may lose and if he does win doesn’t get a title shot. I say Okami by TKO 2nd.

HARDONK vs WESSEL
Antoni Hardonk has rebounded well from his dissapointing performances against Mccully and Mir but lining up back to back tkos. Standing in front of him now is undefeated Heavyweight Mike Wessel. Wessel trains in Arkansas and has been fighting for just over a year. His wins are all over inferior fighters with bad records. Hardonk’s only weaknesses have been shown on the ground. If Wessel comes in to brawl with Hardonk he will be exposed and demolished. But if he fioghts smart and uses the mat he might have a chance. judging by the calibre of Wessel’s opponents i will say Wessel might find it hard to swim right away in the deep end. Hardonk by KO

ANDY vs HAMMILL
When you have two solid wrestlers fightign you usually decide the larger fighter will have the advantage. That of course goes to Hammill who may have the power striking advantage as well. Hammill being the bigger of a fighter that is pretty similar will look to rebound after absolute destruction that he encountered at the hands of Rich Ace Franklin. I think he will Matt Hammill by UD.

BLACKBURN vs CHONAN
Blackburn will be the smaller fighter in this fight. This seems like sortof a showcase opportunity for Chonan. He will likely be able to effectively use his judo and striking against the smaller fighter and force Blackburn from being the aggressor to the defender. If thats the case i have to see Chonan taking a UD or submission victory.

BERRY vs EVENSEN
Berry is a heralded kickboxer to match the other top strikers the UFC has been announced to be bringing in. At first glance Evensen will obviously seem to be much larger than Berry. wait for Berry to let his hands go and you will see why I picked him to get the KO.

~ by martinwil on December 19, 2008.